Irish Unification Referendum Cannot Transform Into 'Another Brexit', Commentators Warn

A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."